By Tom Clark
Executive Vice President, Metro Denver Economic Development Corporation
Denver Metro Chamber of Commerce

First the good news. The West Corridor Line to Jefferson County is under construction. If you’ve driven 6th Avenue lately you’ll see the flyovers and sound walls are progressing nicely. The “Air Train” and Gold Line are expected to break ground in August of this year. All the other corridors are at 30 percent of design. If President Obama wanted “shovel ready” infrastructure proposals again, all corridors would meet the criteria.

Now the “other” news. FasTracks needs additional funding to complete the entire system by 2017, as promised to voters in 2004. Over the past several months we’ve been looking at both the revenue and costs of completing the system as planned. The original price tag of $4.7 billion was wrong. We now have confidence, after much research, that the final cost of the system will be $6.9 billion. Sales tax revenue projections made in 2004 have been proven wrong – thanks in part to the national recession and a financial model that has turned out to be less flexible than desired. There is no doubt that at some future time RTD will ask the voters for more tax money to complete the system. Where will this money come from? Or should we even build out the entire system?

Option #1 – Build out the system with existing revenues
RTD’s recently issued Annual Program Evaluation (APE) notes that the entire system, without a tax increase can be completed “sometime after 2035.” This is good news if you’re an average male, age 49. In 25 years (2035) you will have reached the average life expectancy of American males, 74 years. You will get to ride the full system just about the time you pass away. It will be a pretty expensive ride. You will have been paying a .4 cent sales tax for the system for about 31 years. Bon voyage!

Option #2 – Pass an additional .4 cent sales tax in 2010
FasTracks can be completed as presented to voters in 2004. Even with the most pessimistic revenue projections FasTracks would be ready for riders in its original timetable of 2017. This assumes that already “grumpy” voters in the most uncertain economic time since the Great Depression would be willing to double-down on a tax increase. This strategy, if successful, means that males age 67 or above are the only ones who will pay without riding the entire system before they pass.

Option #3 – Push Election to 2012
A 2012 election would push completion of the entire system to 2019 with a .4 cent sales tax increase. Males who are retiring today at age 65 will still be able to ride the system before they take the big train ride in the sky. If you’re still doing the actuarial countdown with me, a couple of years of exercise and a better diet ought to keep you alive and riding with those in No. 2 above.

Any 2010 election will be an expensive undertaking. Nationally, the Democrats are loading their coffers to keep a commanding majority in the U.S. Senate. Colorado is a battleground state with a sitting Senator who has never run for election. Incumbency, in any form, is not an asset in this election. Many voters are in the “throw the bums out” mindset, regardless of party affiliation. With Bill Ritter’s decision to not seek reelection, the Governor’s race will draw the same national attention….and money. Advertising costs will skyrocket, especially near Election Day. Mail-in ballots serve to extend the time when television and radio ads must run, further driving up campaign costs.

Voters are unsure about their economic future and very, very angry at anyone in office or running for it. Tax increase elections are difficult to win, even if the cause is just. In Metro Denver they seem to have their greatest chance when the economy is just beginning to recover. Then, people are starting to feel a little “jingle in their jeans” and have greater confidence in their employment outlook. A strong showing in the first quarter’s economic reports could give a 2010 election a chance.

(This commentary first ran on Tom Clark’s “Clark’s Cone of Silence” blog at the Metro Denver Economic Development Corp. Click here to go there for other items.)