RTD’s sales tax collections for July dropped 11.4 percent compared with July a year ago, continuing the trend that has hit all public agencies in Colorado and nationwide since the market meltdown September accelerated the impact of the national recession.

If there is any good news for RTD in the latest figures, it is that the $31.27 million in sales taxes it collected for July was 4.6 percent higher than it expected in its revised budget, and year-to-date is 0.7 percent higher than the lowered budget projections — an indication RTD might have found the bottom of the pit after nearly a year of economic volatility.

Public agencies in Colorado and nationwide that depend on sales taxes have taken similar hits.

RTD’s budget was amended earlier this year when the recession put sales tax revenues into free-fall. July figures show RTD might have found the trajectory in its new forecasts. Accurate forecasting is essential to maintaining a stable program.

Nevertheless, the huge forecast drop in sales taxes, forecast to wind up at 10 percent by the end of this year, is forcing cutbacks in RTD service and potential cuts or delays in the FasTracks program, possible furlough days for RTD workers and other economies.

But with state economic forecasters projecting a slow recovery in 2010, the July figure could represent a bottoming out of the year-long decline. The July report shows that the 11.4 drop is the second-lowest all year. The drop in June from June of 2008 was 19.8 percent. Only March, which showed a 7.3-percent decline over the same month the previous year, was less of a percentage drop than July’s.

And when the one-year anniversary of the market meltdown passes this month, a new lower baseline will have been established for a full 12 months and each successive month’s sales tax collections will be compared with those instead.

That is reflected in the forecast for the rest of 2009. In the fourth quarter, based on projections from the Colorado Legislative Council, RTD anticipates 2 percent monthly declines in October, November and December compared with 2008.

Sales taxes revenue is a direct reflection of consumer activity in the region, and it is the primary source of funding for RTD’s regular operations and for planning and execution of FasTracks, the regional rapid transit expansion program.

RTD is anticipating a decline of 10 percent in total sales taxes in 2009 compared with 2008, a huge hit that is being felt by all agencies dependent on sales taxes. For 2010, RTD is projecting a modest 2.8 percent increase over this year, which would only recover part of the loss from this year.

In fact, under RTD’s current forecast, it does not project collecting the same amount of sales tax revenue as it did in 2008 until 2012.

July’s sales tax collections totaled $31.27 million, compared with $35.29 million in July 2008.

For the year to date, through July, RTD has collected 14.2 percent less than in 2008, $206.2 million compared with $240.3 million last year through July.